Israeli Military Analyst Warns of Escalating Iranian Threat and Tunnel Destruction Deadline

Military analyst and writer Avi Ashkenazi has raised alarm about Iran's shift from rhetorical posturing to active military operations on multiple fronts, cautioning that Israel risks repeating past strategic miscalculations if it dismisses Tehran's declarations.

Writing in the Maariv newspaper, Ashkenazi characterized Iran's current posture as a "show of force," manifested not through conventional military displays but through the massive turnout at the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in Israel's opening strike during Operation "Lion's Roar" on February 28.

The funeral speeches carried a distinctly hardline message, with speakers vowing retaliation against Khamenei's killers and those responsible for targeting Iran. Ashkenazi underscores that Tehran has moved beyond mere declarations, stating that the country "is not content with threats, but has been working for weeks on several fronts."

The central task confronting Israel's military, according to Ashkenazi, involves preventing Iran from establishing new friction points while maintaining control over escalation levels.

He cited Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir's visit to Beaufort Heights as particularly significant. The region contains extensive tunnel infrastructure built by Hezbollah over decades with Iranian funding and oversight. These tunnels house command centers, combat facilities, firing positions, and attack infrastructure targeting northern Israeli towns.

Ashkenazi raises questions about how much longer Israel will tolerate what he terms "Iranian strategic tunnels" beneath the Ali al-Tahir Heights in Lebanese territory. He contends that Iran is pressuring the United States to prevent their destruction, noting that dozens of Hezbollah fighters remain trapped inside some tunnels. Each passing day without eliminating these installations increases future risks to Israel, he warns.

The analyst also addressed statements from US President Donald Trump, observing that while Trump delivers firm messages, he simultaneously seeks to demonstrate his authority over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ashkenazi urges Israel to take Iran's threats and statements seriously.

Ashkenazi draws historical parallels to illustrate the consequences of dismissing adversaries' strategic declarations. Following the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah reinterpreted its military mission from "defending Lebanon" to "liberating the Galilee." Similarly, after Operation Protective Edge, Hamas emerged from Gaza's tunnels believing it had withstood Israeli forces, shifting its doctrine from "defending Gaza" to "liberating Jerusalem."

These doctrinal shifts, Ashkenazi argues, were precursors to major escalations. Israel's failure to recognize their significance ultimately contributed to the October 7 attack and the subsequent "Iron Swords" war, now extending beyond 1,000 days.

The analyst concludes that adversaries' public statements merit serious consideration as indicators of genuine strategic evolution rather than mere political rhetoric, as they often foreshadow the trajectory of future conflicts.